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u/AbeFromanLovesYou
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September 17, 2018
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3 points · 5 hours ago

This idea kinda flies in the face of the Altria / Juul merger /u/AbeFromanLovesYou mentioned above, doesn't it?

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yeah it doesn't make sense for MO using the FDA to stomp out JUUL after spending 12 billion on it. They want growth for their investor base, not to wall in their declining cigarette base after spending 12 billion on a JUUL stake. They (MO) are looking to grow a new market (weed) and be at the top of it when it hits (IMO.

Juul spun off from PAX in 2017, but check out the PAX Era. It's basically a Juul for cannabis. You'll definitely see more compabies starting to do this, I'm sure.

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Ya, I see a big positioning battle now for companies wanting to get into the US/global markets now.....STZ buying into CGC, MO buying into CRON, no small names here so there will be even bigger pressure now that serious $$ and organization is behind the push. Big brands are trying to get into these growth markets and get them fired up now.

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Original Poster402 points · 8 hours ago

The last thing I want is more publicity, I'm not wired that way I guess.? Posting on Reddit is one thing but I don't need friends and co-workers asking about it, assuming that my identity was made public.

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113 points · 8 hours ago · edited 7 hours ago

I wouldn't do this...............yet. Wait until the RH thing is officially settled or you have legal advice on this matter (many lawyers will give a free consult if you are wondering, its worth a phone call). If it's settled, it's your call and then go ahead and try to monetize the crap out of this. But this is so early and I wouldn't until the dust settles from this and you know what's gonna happen next.

For the SMALL chance your case goes legal or RH tries to recoup money from you; this could work against you if this randomness goes to court and you've already been in the press giving statements (even anonymously) saying "XYZ" will be used against you. Not only that but I wouldn't trust a reporter named "eastcoastpaperboy" who will "keep your identity a secret". Haven't years of Nintendo taught you not to trust people who throw papers in windows for fun?

(not a lawyer nor is this legal advice). I think at this stage both you and Robinhood are similarly confused on what will happen next; this was a weird event for both here. Has RH contacted you or demanded money or anything yet other than just close your account? As a growing company, RH doesn't want any bad press in any case and this is all over their radar. I don't think they want to go after you for $$$ as this entire sub will revolt in epic fashion; box spreads will be the least of RH's worries at that point.

2 points · 4 hours ago

Wait why is there only a small chance RH tries to recoup? Isn’t it inevitable?

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5 points · 3 hours ago · edited 3 hours ago

Others have commented on this already why it's unlikely (I agree with them) and why they think it's a small chance. Big scale 10k-60k loss for a company like RH is literally nothing and not worth the time for a growth company on a small issue. Change the app, send an email and keep moving on business as usual. However, on that little chance, if 1RONYMAN doesn't have a lot of money to their name and RH tries to collect, a sudden 50k debt could be life altering which is why I asked if this issue is officially over or not and get legal counsel if not. A 50k debt in a day could dramatically alter a humans life especially if it's not expected.

RH is very aware of its target market and they seek to keep growing their base. I don't think it's in RH's best interests alienate its user base by going after a sudden WSB cult hero with a large internet reach amongst fellow RH users (a lot of the WSB sub). Look at the power of people googling "box spreads" or "1ronyman" just from this issue on this sub in the last week, gone up dramatically so it shows you the reach this issue already has. Every other post this week is about "1RONYMAN" and probably will continue for a while.

The number of negative things that could potentially happen to RH if they go after this user for 5-60k far outweighs the positives for them here IMO. Chances are 0% this entire sub doesn't go batshit bezerk if RH actually tries to collect here from him. Why weaponize an army of internet connected people who enjoy taking very significant risks with limited information (WSB)?????

If you ran RH, why alienate your very well connected and loyal user base (WSB) for just under 5-60k for a very small box spread market issue? Makes little sense to me but maybe RH will be very dumb here who knows, anything can happen. 10-60k is probably well under a minutes worth of $ for the company during market hours.

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I’ve followed Tesla for a while. These 13%+ swings are not uncommon.

You could buy it now, it could drop 15% next week, then jump back to 370 after a random company discloses their Semi truck reservation numbers in May.

TSLA is crazy to trade on, and option premiums are insane, but I personally believe now is a decent entry point, if being long Tesla was your intention.

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300 is a midpoint for TSLA IMO. at 350+ usually go short, 250+ usually long. Longer dated options would be sweet, but usually 5k a pop past a couple months.

I think this is one of the patterns that works until it doesn't. One day soon we're either going to $0 or permanently blasting past $360... probably sometime in March

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Pretty hard to pattern TSLA anymore but I don't disagree with you. Part of me just wants to straddle TSLA at 300 dated a year from now and let it play out however it will. TSLA has proven itself a real wildcard stock especially in the last year. Friday is always the news day with TSLA too.

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that afternoon news spike really helped but I do hope the market tanks hard tomorrow because I hate this rally.

Netflix has been surging recently because 1) it is likely to have a positive earnings release tomorrow and 2) investors are interpreting the subscription increase as a positive thing. My feeling however is that they are anticipating a loss in market share with other companies such as Disney entering the streaming conversation. I'm bullish in the short-term, but bearish for the long-term.

My play is going to watch the reaction to the earning release, try to anticipate the peak and short at the top.

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thinking the same thing; long dated puts soon if it moons tomorrow. Competition is coming for sure.

7 points · 3 days ago · edited 2 days ago

Yes.

I think we will see a 1,000-1,500 pullback then a 1,000 point gain in the DOW (down move around March, rally around June) in the mean time.

Then the death spiral happens around August. I noticed a pattern over the last 20 years or so that the market has a natural correction every four years - and it always happens around the quadruple witching day. This is the 4th year, and a lot of the market still needs to be correct for the 2016-2017 overbought timeframes.

EDIT: To further clarify I believe the DOW Jones will touch 18,000... I think I saw the S&P at 1,656 or something.

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Remind Me! 8 months